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Believe well epistemology

Correlation Isn’t Causation

Two things moving together doesn’t mean one caused the other.

When two things rise and fall together, it’s tempting to say one drives the other — but they might share a hidden third cause, run the other direction, or be coincidence. Before accepting a “this causes that,” ask: could something else cause both? could it be reversed? what’s the base rate? Most confident causal stories in the wild are really just correlations wearing a costume.

Where it applies

Skills this lens bears on — open any to see the lesson.